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CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.
The Committee emphasized that growth in the economy has apparently faltered in the period since the first quarter of 1979.
Real gross national product has been roughly stationary, while under normal conditions it would have grown at an annual rate of about 3 percent.
That decision was made because of the numerous other indicators that reached their lows during the third quarter of 1980.
In two previous cases, 19, business cycle troughs in NBER's chronology also occurred one quarter later than the low point for real GNP.
Industrial production and employment have actually declined in a substantial fraction of industries.
At this time, the various indicators examined by the Committee did not give a clear picture of the current state of the business cycle.
A variety of measures of real activity grew sharply from the second to the third quarter.
In view of the recent strength in the economy, the Committee further postponed any preliminary dating of a peak in the business cycle.